On February 14, 2020, the Economic and Trade Agreement Between the United States of America and the People’s Republic Of China: Phase One went into effect. China agreed to expand purchases of certain US goods and services by a combined $200 billion over 2020 and 2021 from 2017 levels. This PIIE Chart tracks China’s monthly purchases of US goods covered by the deal, relying on data from both Chinese customs (China’s imports) and the US Census Bureau (US exports). It then compares those purchases with the legal agreement’s annual targets, prorated on a monthly basis, above two baseline scenarios (see methodology below). As set out in the legal agreement, one 2017 baseline scenario allows for use of US export statistics and the other allows for Chinese import statistics. Note that prorating the 2020 year-end targets to a monthly basis is for illustrative purposes only. Nothing in the text of the agreement indicates China must meet anything other than the year-end targets.
According to the agreement, China has committed to purchase no less than an additional $63.9 billion of covered goods from the United States by the end of 2020 relative to these 2017 baselines. Defining the 2017 baseline using Chinese import statistics implies a 2020 purchase target of $172.7 billion (red in panel a). Defining the 2017 baseline using US export statistics implies a 2020 target of $142.7 billion (blue in panel a).
Through March 2020, China’s year-to-date total imports of covered products from the United States were $19.8 billion, compared with a prorated year-to-date target of $43.2 billion. Over the same period, US exports to China of covered products were $14.4 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $35.7 billion. Through the first three months of 2020, China’s purchases of all covered products were thus only at 40 percent (US exports) or 46 percent (Chinese imports) of their year-to-date targets.
For covered agricultural products, China committed to an additional $12.5 billion of purchases in 2020 above 2017 levels, implying an annual target of $36.6 billion (Chinese imports, panel b) and $33.4 billion (US exports, panel c). Through March 2020, China’s imports of covered agricultural products were $5.1 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $9.1 billion. Over the same period, US exports of covered agricultural products were $3.1 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $8.4 billion. Through the first three months of 2020, China’s purchases were thus only at 37 percent (US exports) or 56 percent (Chinese imports) of their year-to-date targets.
For covered manufactured products, China committed to an additional $32.9 billion of purchases in 2020 above 2017 levels, implying an annual target of $110.8 billion (Chinese imports) and $83.1 billion (US exports). Through March 2020, China’s imports of covered manufactured products were $14.6 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $27.7 billion. Over the same period, US exports of covered manufactured products were $10.9 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $20.8 billion. Through the first three months of 2020, China’s purchases were thus only at 52 percent (US exports) or 53 percent (Chinese
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