Following is a timeline for the renegotiation of NAFTA that takes into account current U.S. fast track law (TPA, or Trade Promotion Authority), as well as other dates that should also be kept in mind when considering timelines.
We present two scenarios:
- Assuming a SIGNING AGREEMENT date of December 30, 2017
- Assuming a CONCLUDING NEGOTIATIONS date of December 30, 2017 (Sign Agreement March 30, 2018)
The order doesn’t reflect likelihood of success.
NAFTA and other Important Dates
- June 27-29: Public hearing in Washington for stakeholders to share their ideas for the talks.
- July 17: The U.S. must publish a detailed summary of its objectives for the NAFTA negotiations 30 days before the launch of negotiations.
- 16: Negotiations can begin any time after this date, which marks the end of the 90-day consultation period required by TPA 2015.
- June 30, 2018: The current U.S. fast-track law (TPA) expires. It could be extended three years — as long as the president requests it, and there is no resolution disavowing it from either the U.S. House or Senate.
- July 1, 2018: Mexico holds its presidential election. Post-election there is a five-month lame-duck period as the incoming government waits to take office.
- 6, 2018: U.S. holds its midterm elections.
- 1, 2018: Inauguration Day for Mexico’s new president. If a deal hasn’t been reached under the previous government, NAFTA talks could pick up again under the new government as of late 2018 or early 2019.
- October 21, 2019: Canada’s next federal election.
Example Timelines for NAFTA Negotiations
Scenario 1 – Assuming a SIGNING AGREEMENT date of December 30, 2017
Assume that all months have 30 days to make the math easy.
May 18 – USTR formally notifies Congress of intention to initiate the renegotiation of NAFTA, starting clock on 90 day window to begin formal negotiations.
Est. June 30 – 180 Days Before Entering into Agreement: Submission of report to Ways and Means and Finance on potential changes to U.S. trade remedy laws. Section 5(b)(3).
July 16 – USTR releases its formal “negotiating objectives”
August 16 – earliest date negotiations can formally begin
August 16-September 30 window within which to complete negotiations if goal is to sign agreement by December 30
October 1 — 90 day notification of intention to sign agreement by December 30
November 1 – 60 days prior to signing, release of agreement text to public
December 30 – NAFTA Parties sign agreement
Scenario 2 – Assuming a CONCLUDING NEGOTIATIONS date of December 30, 2017 (Sign Agreement March 30, 2018)
Assume that all months have 30 days to make the math easy.
August 16 – earliest date negotiations can formally begin across the table
August 16-December 30 window within which to complete negotiations if goal is to conclude negotiations by December 30
January 1, 2018 — 90 day notification of intention to sign agreement by March 30
February 1 – 60 days prior to signing, release of agreement text to public
March 30 – NAFTA Parties sign agreement
The NAFTA Modernization PDF was originally posted here.
This post is WITA’s original content.