Executive Summary:
Beginning in March 2018, the United States began to impose a series of tariffs and then quotas on imports of selected steel and aluminum products from all countries except Australia. Those countries retaliated in kind. The United States also imposed tariffs on a large share of U.S. imports from China, and China retaliated in kind. The United States has threatened to impose additional tariffs on U.S. imports of motor vehicles and parts from selected countries, as well as on the remainder of U.S. imports from China. This study examines the economic effects of these actual and threatened tariffs on the U.S. economy and U.S. workers one to three years after they have been in effect. We look at four scenarios and find:
Base Scenario: As of November 1, steel and aluminum tariffs of and quotas in effect, tariffs of 25 percent on U.S. imports of selected goods from China (Lists 1, 2 and 3), plus retaliation:
- Annual impact on dollar value of U.S. GDP (percent): -0.37
- Annual impact on family of four: $767
- One-time net impact on U.S. jobs: -934,700
- Every state experiences net job losses
Base Scenario plus U.S. tariffs of 25 percent on motor vehicles and parts imported from countries other than Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Korea, and Japan, plus retaliation:
- Annual impact on dollar value of U.S. GDP (percent): -0.43
- Annual impact on family of four: $902
- One-time net impact on U.S. jobs: -1,040,200
Base Scenario plus U.S. tariffs of 25 percent on all remaining imports from China, plus Chinese retaliation:
- Annual impact on dollar value of U.S. GDP (percent): -1.01
- Annual impact on family of four: $2,294
- One-time net impact on U.S. jobs: -2,159,500
All three scenarios combined:
- Annual impact on dollar value of U.S. GDP (percent): -1.04
- Annual impact on family of four: $2,389
- One-time net impact on U.S. jobs: -2,235,400
- Every state experiences net job losses
[To view the original report. click here]
Copyright© 2019 Trade Partnership Worldwide LLC. All rights reserved.