Short of a highly improbable climbdown by China, President Trump, confronting a strong re-election challenge from Democrats, is likely to maintain an aggressive public posture toward Beijing at least through the 2020 campaign cycle, experts tell Axios.
The big picture: Standing tall against China is one of the very few issues with strong bipartisan popularity across the country, which will make Trump hesitant to let it go, especially given the strong economy.
- For China’s Xi Jinping, too, there is much greater political safety in not caving to Trump.
- “Whether or not we get a deal on trade, the U.S.-China relationship is heading towards greater confrontation,” says Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group.
What’s happening: As we reported Monday, health care appears to be a key bipartisan campaign issue. But for Trump, China could be as much or more important, exemplifying what he sees as his key attribute — strength against the foes he sees everywhere.
- In a piece yesterday, the NYT’s Trip Gabriel reported that Trump’s China stance is helping him to solidify support among blue-collar workers in Ohio.
- Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, one of the two dozen Democratic candidates for president, told Gabriel that when local people observe Trump’s China policy, they see that “at least he’s punching somebody in the face, and no one else is.”
- This dynamic — the deeply visceral support for a sharp-edged approach to China — is likely to change the complexion of the election.
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