RETALIATORY TARIFFS NOW TOUCH ABOUT 6.1 PERCENT OF TOTAL U.S. EXPORTSChina, the EU, and the NAFTA countries have now implemented tariffs on about $121 billion worth of U.S. exports. While that number has grown rapidly over the past several months, it still only represents about 6.1 percent of the $2 trillion in total U.S. goods and services exports in 2017. Our analysis indicates China’s retaliatory stance is strongest, accounting for $101.4 billion of the U.S. exports implicated by tariffs. We also estimate $12.8 billion of U.S. exports under Canadian tariffs, $3.5 billion under Mexican tariffs, and $3.3 billion under EU tariffs.
TARIFF-IMPACTED EXPORT INDUSTRIES SUPPORT ABOUT 650,000 JOBSTo extend the analysis we conducted in April on the impact of Chinese tariffs, we converted the products on the tariff lists announced by China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico to four-digit NAICS industry definitions. We then examined the share of overall U.S. exports in tariff-affected commodities among each four-digit industry going to each of these markets. For instance, both China and the EU tariff lists target motor vehicles, so we estimated the share of total U.S. motor vehicles exports that go to China and the EU using national trade data. We then assigned that national ratio to each U.S. county exporting motor vehicles. This methodology estimates the local impact of the tariff changes that, while admittedly blunt, provide the best first-order guess with the available data at hand. Based on this method, we estimate that the tariffs may affect about 294,000 direct export jobs. But those jobs support an additional 354,000 jobs, which means the tariffs implicate a little less than 650,000 jobs overall. These jobs estimates seek to isolate those jobs that depend on exports to the countries that have introduced retaliatory tariffs; they are not estimates of anticipated job losses.
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